| Delphi at work - a real example |
| Building a distribution and fulfilment capability to cope with future changes to the business |
|
| Future changes to our marketplace will need a range of capabilities from our operations division. You are familiar with the sales
forecast as a method of projecting the future. |
| This exercise is quite different, and a few words of explanation will show why. |
| A sales forecast ends with a single figure. |
| To make sure we've kept our options open, this exercise ends with a range of possibilities.
The technique we'll use is called Delphi, which I'll expand in a minute. |
| When a sales forecast is fixed, all alternative figures are discarded. |
| With a Delphi method, all options are and remain open all the time. |
| An example will help. |
| If the current average hire period in a sector is (say) 3 weeks, Delphi would help us establish that |
| It was quite likely to reduce to 2 weeks |
| It might go as low as 1.5 weeks |
| It would no go higher |
| You can imagine the impact of branch operations; much more load marshalling, returns and cleaning,
with impact on staffing and space, for pretty much the same income as now! |
| How Delphi works. |
| A group of people work for a couple of hours under a leader. |
| On a range of subjects (to take our current example; "what
do we think the upper and lower extremes will be for average hire periods?")
everyone with an opinion states it and the others listen. |
| Having listened to all views, each individual makes up their
own mind and records their answer. If there's sufficient overlap between the
opinions we move on. If not, those individuals with extreme views are asked to plead
their case to the group again. Each individual 'votes' again, although they
don't need to change their opinion. |
| Once the results stabilise, we move on to the next question. |
| On certain questions we'll vote first, then listen to the 'extremists'. |
| The technique is most useful when |
| There is no one 'right' answer, more a range of outcomes ranging from probable to possible. |
| There is no requirement for a consensus. Rather the opposite, that we want a range of likely outcomes. |
| It helps to start with some basic facts. |
| Before the meeting (slated for <date>), and using no more than 2 hours of your time,
please establish in your allocated task (below) |
| Where are we now |
| Where were we a few years ago. |
| Task list |
| What might happen to average hire periods |
| What might happen to drop sizes? |
| What proportion might require HIAB delivery |
| What proportion might want timed delivery? |
| If significant, what might the pattern be? |
| Ditto for collections |
| What proportion of jobs might require |
| Same day despatch |
| Next day despatch |
| Day 2 despatch |
| Longer than this |
| How many products might be in the range |
| If easier, how many new products will be needed? |
| How many current products will be obsoleted? |
